Tuesday, January 3, 2006
Russia Today: An overview of Russian nationalism and the continuation of its Tsarist history
Excerpted from an upcoming book on fascism
by StFerdIIIPhase 3 of Russian modern history: Russia Today
‘Russia needs a strong state power and must have it. But I am not calling for totalitarianism.’
Vladimir Putin
[excerpted from a forthcoming book on modern fascism and its forms including Islam]
After the inevitable collapse between 1989 and 1991 of Lenin and Stalin’s madness, Russia has progressed into a new and not so new phase in its history. Russia in its current state is of course inseparable from its history. While life, liberty, and opportunity has improved since the fall of Communism at least as far as the end of indiscriminate fascist terror is concerned [a new phase], the country is still a mysterious, oppressed, and state dominated enigma and a poor one at that [the old phase]. Russians seem to possess an innate anti-Western bias in their socio-political organization and the cleansing of such deep seated antipathy to the European enlightenment tradition will not be easily or quickly effected.
In this regard the current Russian President Vladimir Putin and his government have decided that a return to Tsarist rule over a diverse amalgamation of peoples and territory is the only efficacious form of governing an unruly empire. As the recent liberation from Russian control of the Ukraine during the December 2004 ‘Orange Revolution’ indicates, such a philosophy is probably doomed to eventual oblivion. Yet Putin and his coterie are simply following the oldest form of Russian realism – and ignoring their suffering population. Throughout a long history of oppression the Russian people have been led to believe that an all knowing central power is vital to develop the country into a great power and to fabricate a robust and safe Russia. In fact in modern Russia there is a view that ‘Eur-Asianism’ and the military and political alliance between Islam and Russia is in the best interests of the Russian nation, served of course by a powerful all knowing state, and should be pursued to offset the uni-polarity of the United States.
Such a policy and set of attitudes is not new. It is in fact a very old set of ideas that hearkens back to the Cold War era when the Soviets tried doing much the same during the late 70s and 80s to prop up their failing empire by forming alliances with Islamic regimes and terror regimes world-wide. The Soviets were the great trainers and enablers of the modern Islamic terror movement and were instrumental in tying various terrorist networks together to create the international drug trade which even today aims at destabilizing the West. As Reagan rightly stated Soviet Russia was an evil empire and a nexus of terror. Putin is simply following in the footsteps of Gorbachev. During the 1980s Gobachev’s selective liberation of certain economic sectors and socio-political areas to generate firstly economic power and secondly to give outlet to political expression and frustration ended up destabilizing the entire Empire and effectively ended it. Don’t expect Putin to make the same mistake. Gorbachev’s original intention as a believer in Communism and one party state rule was precisely that a selective opening of economic and political opportunity would allow the Communist state to survive by creating jobs and giving some outlet to political frustrations. Gorbachev was not a democrat. Certainly neither is the KGB trained Putin.
Gorbachev was faced with an economy in ruins, a bankrupt military sector that was operated as a separate economy and relied exclusively on the theft of western technology to stay afloat, and the shortage of consumer items, jobs and wealth creation, and importantly a Western embargo on trade and technology transfer implemented by Reagan and NATO that stopped Soviet importation of western monies and technologies. He had no choice but to try to reform his system. The fact that this avid communist failed to achieve his objectives has not deterred an adoring western media from assigning him saintly status. One might as well ascribe to Mao the same reverence. Gorbachev never intended to dismantle his empire but only to prolong communist rule and by extension communist misery on 300 million people. Indeed Putin has cried that the ending of the Soviet Empire was the saddest episode of the 20th century. This statement certainly supports the fascistic tendencies of Putin and his ruling gang and indicates exactly the type of Empire that Putin wants built.
As they did with Gorbachev the Western media has given Putin a free ride until now. Putin’s clownish and failed intervention in the Ukrainian election; his incompetent policy of obliteration in Chechnya; nationalization of oil assets; one party rule; non-transparency in government; and total disregard for true economic reforms has led many to conclude that his regime is not only illiberal but anti-Western. They would be right. Russian control of energy supplies to Eastern Europe [almost 100 %], and to a far smaller degree Western Europe, and its massive oil and natural gas potential make Russia a major factor in the geo-political chess game of energy sourcing vs. national state foreign policy preferences. Indeed Putin has increased the price of gas and oil by a factor of 5 times to the Ukraine since 2004 – no doubt a payback and a slap to the new western-facing Ukrainian government and to the Ukrainian people for rejecting Moscow’s hegemony and mafia control.
Given Russia’s vast oil resources – now the greatest in the world - Putin feels that he is in quite a strong position domestically and internationally. Russia has experienced an ever increasing revenue base as oil prices stay above U$55 per barrel. This of course allows Putin to use state monies to further consolidate political, economic and media control. Combined with a GDP growth of 5-7 % per year, stable and low inflation, a more effective banking sector, a stable ruble, a tepid but still prevalent foreign investment, and a ‘crackdown’ on the hated Oligarchs which pleases public opinion, Putin seems to have a good story to tell his people. Indeed he enjoys approval ratings of well over 70 %. The Putin personality and control cult, as vibrant as anything developed by Lenin or Stalin, is alive and well in Moscow.
Yet in reality Russia is underperforming and will experience future chaos due to four factors – political corruption, an unstable economy, poor foreign policy, and a declining population. In fact you can take the frameworks listed in the sections on Stalin and Lenin and apply them to Putin. Everything from propaganda to economic nationalization is being followed by Putin. For instance only one party dominates Russian politics and it’s Parliamentary Duma – United Russia – which is Putin’s personal party. The lack of a durable multi-party system [Putin raised the minimum limit to have a party to 50.000 members], and fewer opposition parties gives Putin’s United Russia increased access to administrative resources that can be used to disrupt the 'democratic rule of law'. As Putin's ‘reforms’ continue to amass power for his regime and for United Russia, the lack of accountability has led to an increased number of abuses of power. Indeed Putin has driven out, exiled or killed any pro-Western reformers either in politics or business. Putin has lost his most liberal and pro-Western economic adviser Illarionov, who complained that Russia ‘was not free’ and he increasingly faces a skeptical West who witness only the dissolution of the tepid Yeltsin reforms of the 1990s and the strengthening of the KGB apparatus in Moscow. Nothing is more indicative of the return to Soviet style command and control than the re-erection in Moscow of statues dedicated to various Soviet era leaders which were torn down after 1991.
Change in Russia will not happen until political reform is initiated and this will only happen when Russia creates a genuine middle class. Contrary to Western media disinformation the current Russian middle class while growing is not large and the bulk of society is still poor. The Russian people live in housing that would be condemned in most Western cities, the average salary for a lucky worker in Moscow might about $800 US per month and families shack up together in small, fetid apartments to allow economies. Infrastructure development in most areas vital to economic and job creationism are lacking as is a modern, hospital and health system. Education certificates, driver’s licenses, and official papers of all varieties are regularly ‘bought’. Due processes are not followed; an independent legal system is a dream; corruption is endemic; state-owned media blare nationalist pulp for the consuming masses, wherein even Soviet greatness with nary a reference to purges, famines, 30 million dead, and widespread socio-environmental destruction is trumpeted.
Mafia ridden businesses dominate most market segments and what the mafia has not taken the State owns. For example state ownership of the oil industry is a fait accompli after the illegal dismantlement of Yukos. Putin wants to control oil, which provides for 40 % of Russia’s budget. Currently the Kremlin controls directly almost half of the oil and energy sector. The other half is tightly regulated and control emanates from the Kremlin. Even so-called private firms understand that what the Kremlin wants it usually gets and that annoying the state is a quick way to either losing your assets – or your life. A functioning private economy in Russia in the major industrial sectors is not a reality. Whether owned by the state or not, the key areas of economic life are controlled and managed by the Kremlin and politics and corruption trump transparency and price signals.
But as with all mafia regimes state ownership and corrupt markets only limit Russia’s potential. The GDP of Russia is now back to its 1993 level and is lower than that of Holland [U$430 Billion vs. U$470 Billion]. GDP per capita is about 70th in the world at $2100 per person, and though GDP growth is averaging 5-7 % per annum, personal incomes are still low at about U$500 per month on average and inflation is running at an unsustainable 13% per annum. Economics might force through social change if enough Russians become energized enough to take on the all powerful state. This is possible though increasingly doubtful. The complete socialization of the Russian populace has already proceeded rather far. There is no power base of money, political muscle, enlightened education, middle class aspirations, or media support, which desire wholesale change and democratization.
The media is emblematic of Russia’s current fascist orientation. Along with real economic reform, informed media debate does not exist in Russia. The media is either state owned or state coerced. Journalists like the former editor of ‘Forbes Russia’ magically disappear in car accidents, home accidents, or like Yuschenko the current Ukrainian President, are poisoned if they criticize or oppose the Russian state. The state is of course increasingly viewed as the wishes of the Kremlin, not a plural polity in the Western sense. According to the Committee to Protect Journalists in their book ‘Attacks on the Press in 2004’, there has been a purge of independent voices on Russian national television and a wide suppression of Russian news coverage of anything that is critical of the regime. Putin is increasingly exerting Soviet-style control over the media. In fact CPJ's analysis suggests that the press operates with less freedom than it did in the closing years of Soviet communism.
As with all state owned outlets the Russian media is quite hostile to the United States. Virulent anti-Americanism is blasted forth from Kremlin controlled presses and TV stations, even maintaining that the US government is really just a collection of mafia interests. The combination of these economic and social factors has a decisive warping effect on the mind of the average Russian citizen. Many of the young exposed to the West with trips to Europe and the US might reject their poverty, their lack of infrastructure and jobs opportunities in Russia and they might even feel revulsion for the nationalist Russian media, but these fortunate few constitute a distinct minority within Russia. Most Russians are brain washed into believing that they live in a great power and that the US is a rotten, uncultured, immoral wasteland.
Fascist tendencies, abetted by a nationalist media color foreign policy. Like Fascist regimes in the past, current day Russia feels besieged by evil Westerners – intent on destroying the motherland. Russian paranoia cites NATO’s expansion into Eastern Europe; US military bases in Central Asia; US forces in Afghanistan, Iraq and soon other Middle Eastern states; and supposed Western meddling in the 2004 Ukrainian election, as proof that the West is hostile to Russian interests. This poor analysis is used by the government, through media owned outlets to excite nationalist feeling and state support. Such xenophobia of course affects Russian politics and policy setting – an ‘un-virtuous circle’ of state manipulated racism.
The Russians have long been the allies of militant Islam and have a dim and unenlightened view of the US demand for Islamic democratic reform. Indeed the Russians have been amongst the biggest detractors of Israel’s right to existence and have openly allied themselves with the Arab-Palestinian cause against Israel. Russian alliances with Islam and China, including partnering with a mad mullah regime in Iran that demands the liquidation of both the Anglo-Saxon powers and Israel, and Russia’s extremely nationalistic interest in controlling Central Asian oil development and distribution, presage a rather cool if not cold relationship between Putin’s Tsarist-like empire and the West. Russia will be militant Islam’s partner either covertly or overtly depending in part on the state of affairs of the increasingly vocal and energized Russian Muslim republics, as well as on oil and Russian obsession with countering US power in Central Asia and the Middle East. Russia will support China as well, as long as the Chinese are willing to buy Russian military hardware and help invest and develop Russian energy supplies.
Such anti-Western posturing is of course nothing new for Russia. The Russian Soviets supported Islamic terror regimes, cells and developed terrorist networks to sell drugs, attack Western assets and form an Arab-Islamic ‘bloc’, much like the Nazi’s did, to oppose the West in the Middle East and beyond. Russian money, arms, soldiers, advisers and politicians have since 1945 openly backed the fascist Arabic-Islamic states using them in their struggle against US power. For all the current rhetoric by Tsar Putin and Russia that it is a US ally on terror, the Russians have done very little to back up their words with deeds. The Russians opposed the US invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq – the former for geo-political reasons and the latter because Russia was making too much money from Hussein. Indeed the Russians outside of Chechnya have no interest in fighting militant Islam and will never join an international force to do so. Russia has replaced Nazism and along with France and Germany is a prime investor and financier in Islamic terror and regime support.
Iraq is instructive of Russian perfidy and double dealing regarding Islam. During the 1990s it was no secret that the Russians were making billions of dollars per annum from illegal sales to Hussein’s Iraq and had huge oil concessions granted by Hussein to Russian oil firms. Payoffs by Hussein were made to former Russian foreign minister Primakov [about U$2 million] as well as other top Russian officials and Russian troops, equipment, bombs and heavy armor were discovered in Iraq by coalition forces during the 2003 Iraq war. The Russians with their UN security council veto obstructed the US desire to go to war after 17 UN resolutions were broken by Iraq, simply out of avarice and economic advantage. In this vein I would not expect Russia to desist from selling military hardware to Islamic regimes, indeed the Russians are very active in Iran in providing nuclear energy, oil development and military sales. Expect Russian economic greed and Central Asian political and social concerns to be predominant in their foreign policy analysis and Russia will do anything to avoid a US led regime change of the fascist Mullahs in Teheran. This says nothing of the potential of the Russian mafia to sell nuclear parts, secrets or warheads to the highest Islamic bidder.
Ironically however although Russia has always positioned itself as a friend of radical and fascist Islam it will face a new and potentially fatal threat from its own Muslim population. Along with the increasing power and violence of Islam within the Russian Federation, there is another and quite serious source of Russian decline which will cause foreign and domestic convulsions, namely; demography. Each year Russia's population of 140 million declines by one million people. However the Muslim sects which constitute 25 million, are increasing by about 1 million per annum. This means that ‘white’ Russia is dying and Islamic Russia is thriving. At this rate, by 2050 its population will have shrunk by a third and Muslims will be 50 % of the population. If you don’t think that this colors foreign policy or the war in Chechnya then you don’t understand the power of demography or of ethnic compositions.
Consider this: the white Russian male life expectancy is about 58 and falling, versus 75 in the USA and Canada. White Russians are simply a dying breed. This decline in the white Russian population is of grave concern not only to the Kremlin, but also the West. One cause of this slow extermination is according to a Russian Duma [parliament] report ‘[the] stress generated by people's lack of confidence in their futures and those of their children.’ Another is alcoholism. The Russian suicide rate is quadruple that of Europe. Muslims on the other hand are thriving. Muslim women have 5 children on average while Russian women are having one or less. White Russia is simply not procreating enough to maintain its population and combined with a drastically high death rate, we might witness the Islamicization of Russia or at least the disengagement of the Central Asian republics from the declining white power of Moscow. This demographic change in Russia’s population, as Mark Steyn observes, makes for a grim prognosis:
“Russia is literally dying. From a population peak in 1992 of 148 million, it will be down to below 130 million by 2015 and thereafter dropping to perhaps 50 or 60 million by the end of the century, a third of what it was at the fall of the Soviet Union. It needn't decline at a consistent rate, of course. But I'd say it's more likely to be even lower than 50 million than it is to be over 100 million. The longer Russia goes without arresting the death spiral, the harder it is to pull out of it, and when it comes to the future most Russian women are voting with their foetus: 70 per cent of pregnancies are aborted.
At a time when Russian men already have a life expectancy in the mid-50s -- lower than in Bangladesh -- they're about to see AIDS cut them down from the other end, killing young men and women of childbearing age, and with them any hope of societal regeneration. By 2010, AIDS will be killing between a quarter and three-quarters of a million Russians every year. It will become a nation of babushkas, unable to muster enough young soldiers to secure its borders, enough young businessmen to secure its economy or enough young families to secure its future. True, there are regions that are exceptions to these malign trends, parts of Russia that have healthy fertility rates and low HIV infection. Can you guess which regions they are? They start with a 'Mu-' and end with a '-slim'.
So the world's largest country is dying and the only question is how violent its death throes are. Yesterday's Russia was characterised by Churchill as a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. Today's has come unwrapped: it's a crisis in a disaster inside a catastrophe.“
White Russia will drink, abort and murder herself into national decline and eventual destruction. So what will happen to its nuclear warheads, its borders, its energy, its military, and its partnership in the war on terror? If Russia disintegrates and unravels and the mystery becomes not mysterious but dangerous what will the West do? Will we let the Chinese walk in and gorge themselves on Russia’s Far Eastern oil and energy supplies? Will we allow the Russians to fail in their fight against fascist Jihadists in the Caucasus which will embolden Islam elsewhere? Will we simply stand agape while the Russian mob sells off nukes and know-how to the highest Islamic bidder? Western self interest dictates that we take the coming chaos in Russia quite seriously.
In relation to the slow death of white Russia consider the following: the Muslim population in Russia is on average quite young and the demographic explosion of Muslim youth, who are seemingly more open to radical Islam then their parents, will unsettle the Russian empire, especially in Central Asia. It is not a coincidence that the Russians are very keen on alliances with Turkey and Iran. The last thing the Russian tsarist elite needs is a Muslim uprising in Central Asia. To quell the spread of radical Islam Russian national interest dictates that a soft policy towards Iran the chief investor in world wide terror, and the supposedly secular Turks, will aid them in keeping their own Muslims quiescent. Given the long history of Islamic terror and Islamic intolerance this is a wrong headed policy but nonetheless Islam will exert a great influence on Russian policy. It is open to debate if the Russians will keep their Islamic republics within the greater Russian empire – but you can bet on the Russians using all means including economics, force, and war, to keep their empire and the oil rich areas of Central Asia intact.
So is Russia the West’s ‘friend’? The short answer is no. The longer one is that Russia has redounded back to the days of Soviet control, reconstituting its empire under the aegis of complete state domination. Putin is implementing Gorbachev’s original plan and he won’t fail. The doctrine of Communism is gone, but the ideology of Putinism based on ethno national-socialism is alive and well. Russian chauvinism, a leadership cult, the rewriting of history, great power pride, oil and energy resources and a corrupt, controlled and eastern facing regime has little real interest in the Western ideals of freedom, division of powers and democracy. Putin is simply the latest in a long, long line of Russian tsars and a far more successful keeper of state control than was Gorbachev. But even when Putin exits and his cult is passed on to an anointed and non-democratically elected successor, don’t expect the new Tsar to change course. The gang running the Kremlin and benefiting from controlling its huge Empire will not desire any reforms relating to democracy, transparency, Western styled liberal politics or principled foreign policy. Anyone expecting such is a dreamer.
Given this history is it any wonder then that when talking to the average Russian you have a sense that they come from a different world? They and their Oriental empire share nothing in common with the Western experience. Whatever the various failings of Western practices, and there are quite a few, it is an experience in virtual reality manipulation to transpose the disaster that is modern Russia onto Western nation states or to ascribe to the West the ills that plague Russia. Yet from such a place and mentality the rule of a Putin is not only possible but inevitable. From such a history Orientalism is guaranteed. Putin personalities do not spring from un-ploughed earth, they simply grow from prepared soil.
The entire history of Russia is thus one long testimony to the enduring power of cultism, fascist ideals and anti-liberal policies. In that regard don’t expect the Russians to become a Western ally any time soon. In fact expect the opposite. The Russians, as they did in Iraq and are doing again in Iran by supplying the Iranians technology and military hardware, will form selfish alliances with Islamic nations for economic and political profit, and to keep their fast growing 25 million Muslims dormant. Russia in its latest national-socialist phase will do as little as possible to aid the West in the war on Islamic terror while all the while trying to selectively use Western investment, monies and skills to upgrade their own economy enabling the regime to further crush liberalism in Russia and tighten its grip on power. Putin is just simply a more successful Gorbachev.