One of the cruder and more unsophisticated claims surrounding Europe and the Euro [soon to be the Zeuro]; is that the 'core' is fat, healthy, happy and smoking pipes in their collectivist nirvanas. There is little to substantiate this incredibly wrong-headed claim. French and German banks alone have $1.6 Trillion of debt exposure to failing peripheral Euro-states, and at least that double that if one adds in the massive debts and unfunded liabilities of France and Germany which total some $20 Trillion. When France and Germany transfer welfare funds to Greece it is reminiscent of a drunken beggar in shoes, handing over his food stamps to a brethren drunkard who is considered poorer because he is shoeless.

The real question around Europe and the Euro is how long can the charade and socialist fantasy carry on? In 2013 and 14 trillions comes due in Euro debt which must be rolled over. If the debt refinancing fails Europe will be rolling over into insolvency. I wonder if anyone will take note of the reasons for Europe's fiscal failure including inter-alia high taxes on capital, income and investment; rigid labor and capital markets and outrageous corruption between the nexus of big unions, big government and big 'national' champions who gorge themselves at the public welfare trough. Even worse for the Eurocats is the utter disintegration of European culture and mores. Nihilistic Marxism and idiocies such as GlobaloneyEcocult fascism have taken the place of rational-spiritual intelligence. Minds and nature both abhor a vacuum. Destroy your culture and in swaggers the likes of the Green cult and Islam.

John Maudlin posts an excellent analysis much in line with the above [the cultural attributed is missing]:

 “We have dodged a short-term bullet with Greece and Europe coming to terms this week, but in late July they will have to find AT LEAST €50-70 billion more euros in loans and rollovers, and then more next year. Without projected asset sales it could reach €100 billion very easily. And willpower is waning on the part of creditor countries. Opposition against throwing good money after bad is increasing, as recent polls in Finland, Germany, the Netherlands, and Slovakia have shown. How long Merkel can hold her coalition together in the face of growing discontent is not clear. Powerful, authoritative voices in Germany are starting a daily chorus of chanting “no” to more bailouts.

And it is not just Greece. After Greece is dealt with, the Eurozone must deal with Ireland and Portugal. And the market is increasingly suggesting there is more risk there than the area can handle. Look at the graph below, which shows the steady rise of interest rates for Ireland and Portugal. This looks like Greece not so long ago. And Portugal now has higher rates than Ireland. This means that both countries are effectively cut out of the private market. (www.ifr.com)

Both countries keep saying they are not Greece, but the bond markets are not buying it. And as I noted last week, when Greece defaults, and they will at some point, the contagion to other countries will be quick and severe. And Spain will be included. The Italian bank index has been in free fall of late.

 Money is flying out of Greek banks. Indeed, deposits in all the peripheral countries are falling. It is quite possible we get a credit or banking crisis in Europe before we get a sovereign default crisis. The longer Greece waits, the more they try and kick the can down the road, the worse it gets for their banks. And Greece has NO money to bail out its banks.”

Greece will fail. The most at risk are French and German banks. Maudlin is right. How long will Merkel and friends bail out their banking buddies at the expense of the average over-taxed German citizen-knave? Is funding poor bank and political decisions really a moral imperative ? Or are we better to own up to reality and let Greece default and find a way to manage bank insolvency? There is no way out of the debt mess. You can toss good money after bad, or at some point make the adult decision that an orderly bankrutcy process for both states and banks is the least worst and most cost-efficient option. But given the corrupted nexus of big banks and big Euro-cat governance, that will never happen.