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Wednesday, June 13, 2012

Europe's flawed and failed Monetary model.

You can't erase national and cultural differences.

by StFerdIII

 “Some critics have cited numerous deficiencies in the theory that the transfer of power to the Euro will be smooth and those market forces will force and implement fiscal discipline. Their presuppositions are based primarily on the fact that the Euro process will fail and that national sovereignty in the face of mounting EU wide economic dislocations will re-assert itself. These assumptions are based on the realist doctrine that national interests and differences cannot be bridged within the EU by a common currency and that rational choice analysis will dictate intra-EU disputes.” [America vs. Europe, p. 158]

 

The Zeuro zone was always a socialist product and project; part of the triangulation to neuter European civilization. There is little that is intelligent, moral or 'progressive' about modern Europe. The merger of Marxism and Atheism naturally leads to ignorant theologies such as globaloneywarming; statism; and 'demand side' economics. In the European triangulation against the individual and reality there is Keynesianism on the fiscal side of the triangulation. Technocracy and corrupt nepotism on the political. Fiat currency and mandarin money management of the monetary. None of it is based on logic. All of it is premised on power and the destruction of the individual and the establishment of a collective.

The Zeuro was doomed from the start. A fact that the lame-brain media did not mention in their euphoric applause that the EU will finally end the unipolar hegemony of the US. In some limited respects China has done this. In their hubris – another fact never mentioned by the media – the Euros neglected reality and followed socialist fantasy. A well-functioning and logical currency area comes when the following factors are clearly present:

-Federated area with common governance which precedes and is indeed the basis of monetary governance

-A political need for common money

-A shared culture

-Similar trade flows, trade patterns and broadly comparative macro-economic similarity

-Flexibility within the Federated area in capital and labour mobility

-Systemic convergence in the rates of interest

None of these attributes inform the EU 17 currency area. None. The Europeans as they are wont to do have of course put the entire process backwards. Political and cultural cohesion must pre-date and provide the base infrastructure for fixed exchange rate imposition.

The Euro is 12 years old and its mandate was to supplant the US Dollar as the world's reserve currency. It failed to achieve or even come close to, that singular objective. The delusional Lisbon Declaration of 2000, trumpeted the fantasy that the Euro zone would be equal to the economic and political power of the USA by 2010. Apparently that objective has not been met.

The Euro will be a Zeuro within 5 years. The Euro has 3 main purposes:

  1. Secure for Germany a rise in exports [800% over 10 years]

  2. Hide all national debts behind an Uber DM

  3. Allow governments and the Euro elite to further entrench socialism nationally and trans-nationally and force a political union.

No one who seriously studies the Euro zone would dispute these 3 goals.

Yet it is a disaster both fiscally and monetarily. The banking system of Europe has systemic sovereign debts which cannot be repaid of over $1 Trillion. The real budget deficits and total debts of all European states are 2x larger than stated. Greece's total debt of $350 billion can never be repaid, and that does not include its off the balance liabilities that it has 'guaranteed' to its voters. French and German national debt is circa '90% of GDP' – but that number ignores the hundreds of billions promised to the various Euro stabilization schemes. When these are added, the debt to GDP rises to 150%. Every European country is the same. The table below makes it clear that the EU is bankrupt. Total 'stated' 'public' EU debts [owed to non Euro zone entities], are only 83% of GDP or $11.4 Trillion Euros. This is half of the real level. There is no possibility that you can pay back $20 Trillion in debt. None.

The Europeans spend over 50% of their GDP. Government keeps growing, every single year. This is called 'austerity'. Growing government every year by 10% then cutting back 2% of the extra spending is deemed by the media to be 'vicious cuts' to the social welfare state of the Euro zone. Total Euro zone austerity is no more than $100 Billion Euros – total spending is $6.5 Trillion.....even socialists can do the math. The Euros will not do anything to curtail spending or reform their socialist paradises.

The Euro will implode due to the irrationality of the project, and the fact that in essence the Euro banking sector, which is tied to the bankrupted state; is itself insolvent. There is no reason to buy the Euro; invest in Europe or acquire Euro assets. The entire fantasy will unravel. It will make for cheap future vacations.