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Thursday, September 11, 2014

The Euro is still way over-valued. No good reason for its current exchange rate exists.

A bankrupted Continent with a currency valued at more than the U$? Hmmm.

by StFerdIII


Given the general bankruptcy of Europe, it is safe to assume, that the trend for the Euro is down. The Euro peaked in 2008 versus the US dollar. Since then it has lost 19% of its value. There is no reason to expect that it won't lose another 20% or more as Europe struggles to rebuild a dynamic economy. Historically when one views the mean average from the 15 year trend line below, it would appear that without fiscal default, bankruptcy, or another recession, the Euro will go back to 1.20 USD. Economic or fiscal failure will push it far below that rate.  


The European Central Bank has already indicated that it will embark on a massive printing/spending program to 'stimulate' government [one assumes] and inflation. This is not good news for the Euro. 


Over the longer term we would expect that the original 1:1 relationship will be restored and most likely the Euro will fall below 1.00 USD in the next 5-7 years as it did in 2002. Indeed the entire Euro edifice, built on illogical political imperatives which are contrary to economic law, and which offend trade, business and investment cycles, not to mention local democratic checks and balances; will fail and likely dissolve. The sanctity of the Euro, so beloved by internationalists and Europhiles is anything but a certainty.




Euro value on its launch date January 1 1999: 1.16 USD

Lowest value: .87 USD February 2002