Letters by a modern St. Ferdinand III about cults

 There are many myths about China. If one travels there, especially along the eastern seaboard, the development and change taking place is simply astounding. You can't describe the transformation in meaningful language. The 5 senses are overwhelmed. No other sites in the world compare to Beijing and Shanghai and the creation of the modern from an antiquated broken, pre-modern. The seaboard of China is history's largest construction project and scene of its greatest forced march from poverty to civilization. But this rapid renaissance obscures facts and generates myths. For the New York Times, CNN, and most major media, China is the apogee of social and economic 'modelling'; which must be imitated, accepted and venerated. Indeed the Chinese will rule the world according to these panjandrums of statism. In the real world however, the myths are as destructive as what actually occurs in a one party totalitarian state.

One can summarize the myths about China in the following list:

1) The China 'Model'

The China 'model' of development is this: Western technologies, Western money, Western manufacturing; and Western marketing are creating firms, jobs and exportable products. Most of China's development is export-led, with Western firms exporting back to Western states, or in the case of car companies and luxury goods firms; selling to the local Chinese market. There is very little domestic Chinese development in any meaningful sense compared to the influx of Western firms and their technologies. Foreign affiliated trade in goods and services is well over 50 % of Chinese GDP including exports back to the West; and Western goods sold to the 300 million middle and 'richer' class of Chinese consumers. This means that most of China's growth is built on Western capital.

2) China's 'model' and GDP give it real power

Due to the above, China needs America and Europe; more than America and Europe need China, even given that the Chinese own $1 Trillion in US bonds. According to the World Bank, China's GDP is $6 Trillion or about 40% of US levels. However the Chinese economy has a lot more than $ 1 Trillion [its US bond purchases] in dependency on US money, trade and imported oil which runs through sea lanes controlled by the US navy. Almost half of China's GDP, or $3 Trillion, is dependent on foreign capital and trade.

3) China is capitalist

This is an absurd claim, made on CNBC and the lame-stream media. China is about as 'capitalist' as Brazil or Argentina. Everything in China is managed by the Communist cult or party. Every single industry, bank and large enterprise is connected to the Central Party. Chinese cities, townships and provinces, are run by the cult and the elite for their own benefit. At some point the model of the cult uber alles will fail. It always does. Corruption, nepotism, greasy palms, in-fighting, resource wastage and unaccountability will take its toll. Whatever you want to name China, 'capitalist' is not the right moniker. The state runs everything.

4) Growth will go on forever

This is an equally implausible claim by the Sinophiles. Economies don't expand forever, they can't. Bubbles in capital, real estate, and infrastructure will form and pop. A corrupt political system must distort markets, prices, and the benefits of development. China is so reliant on Western trade and capital, that the very nature of its progress will likely be its undoing. Unless it develops domestic industry, intellectual property [which it rampantly steals from Western firms]; and expertise its economy will at some point be susceptible to state-created dislocations.

As well the rifts in Chinese society are huge. The gaps between the East and the rest; between rich and poor; between regions; intra-region; and between those who rule and those who have no power; is so great, that social dislocation is inevitable. A main concern of the State is revolution, rebellion, violence and instability.

5) The US is to blame for China's isolation

A favourite theme of most Chinese is that the US is to blame. According to many Chinese the Americans are 'ringing' China with enemies. Korea, Japan, Philippines, Vietnam and Indonesia are all 'hostile' to China thanks to American meddling. The US is warring unnecessarily across the pacific and wonderful Islamic world, and is trying to destabilize Moslem minorities within China. Further the US is constantly trying to make China look 'bad' and caricature the Chinese as voracious users of resources, intent on East Asian domination and wedded to Chinese imperialism as China builds up huge armed forces. In the Chinese view, the Han people are pacific, noble, charitable and have no longing to expand Chinese power in Asia. It is the Americans who cause trouble.

While individual Chinese are certainly hospitable, kind and friendly, a one-party totalitarian regime is usually not. China is openly allied with Turkey, Syria, Iran and other Islamic states whose pre-modern political program is at odds with civilization. Chinese state owned firms buy firms and resources at will in Africa and Latin America, with the Chinese media declaiming against any Western obstruction in Western states to the same. There is no reason why a modern state would want its key resources owned by the Communist Cult of China. And of course China has very bold ambitions about dominating the natural resources, water and political processes in East Asia. Neighbouring states have every reason to be nervous. The Chinese demand for water alone could entail a war.

6) China will rule the world and the RMB will be the reserve currency

No it won't. China does not offer anything new or innovative. There is no compelling reason why states would 'join' its new world order. Its 'model' is based on extracting Western monies and technologies to develop an export sector. Its currency will simply devalue once it is de-linked to the US$, there is no reason why the RMB would increase in value. The state has spent about $8 Trillion in debt on infrastructure and city-building – a fantastic amount for an economy of $6 Trillion and one that entails future inflation if not insolvency. The social welfare system is immature and social incoherency a fact of life. Its military does threaten neighbouring states and being friendless is not a path to world dominance.

China does of course possess some strengths. A high savings rate, a rapid industrialization, a smart dynamic population, and the ability to attract investment to satiate a burgeoning domestic revitalization replete with fairly low taxes and reasonably low wages. But like all good things, the development of China will at some point ebb and diminish. When it does contract and retrace the world economy will be impacted of course, but this should be expected. China has severe issues with social imbalances, a lack of water, the massive importation of oil and natural resources [over 60% of its usage]; and with a corroded political-economic structure. These constraints will make themselves felt at some point and though China will remain a force, its march to pre-eminence will never occur. Like it or not the Chinese will always have to deal with the collective superior of the 'White Devil' and his world.