Gab@StFerdinandIII - https://unstabbinated.substack.com/
Plenty of cults exist - every cult has its 'religious dogma', its idols, its 'prophets', its 'science', its 'proof' and its intolerant liturgy of demands. Cults everywhere: Corona, 'The Science' or Scientism, Islam, the State, the cult of Gender Fascism, Marxism, Darwin and Evolution, Globaloneywarming, Changing Climate, Abortion...
Tempus Fugit Memento Mori - Time Flies Remember Death
Europe the 6-layered socialist experiment which so titillates the lovers of Cuba and China. Centralized control. Massive, unaccountable bureaucracy. Socialized health, education, 'safety nets' and markets. National champions. Subsidized firms and living. Holiday payments for the unemployed. A single currency which wreaks chaos across 27 states. Moslem immigration which will ensure that most urban areas are moon-cult dominated by 2040. Surely a nirvana, worthy of Marxist theology and veneration.
The next great 'recession', which will occur within the next 5 years, will likely begin in ossified, tired, socialized, corrupt Europe. The manifestations are clear enough to see:
-Real debt levels including unfunded liabilities are 5-8 x the size of the total Euro economy [apocryphally tabled at about $17 Trillion]. The real debt is so huge that there is no possibility of ever paying it back and this ensures higher future taxes, inflation and socialized program cuts and reductions [sparking social unrest] – if not outright insolvency.
-Real bank debt. Banks which fund the state are technically bankrupt. DB by itself has some $70 + Trillion of dubious loans and derivatives on their accounting books. This number is an impossible sum to 'clean up' or get rid of. [see Maudlin]
-Debt and insolvency issues will trigger higher future interest rates and a financial downturn including banking sector bailouts as the financial system, which is tied directly to state finances, slowly implodes. As the financial system melts down, so too will state finances.
-Real unemployment [not government lies], based on common-sense and reality indicates that about 25-30% are unemployed, with the youth unemployment in places like Spain or Italy at 50%.
-Real business and investment cycles differ between various EU states making a single monetary policy, including a single currency, an impossibility. The only exception to this is Germany and the Benelux. The euro must be disbanded and when it happens it will trigger economic and social fractures.
-Real exchange rates make it clear that the euro is over-valued by at least 40%. There is no reason why it is at a 35% premium to the US $. None whatsoever. If currency values were truly based on fundamentals the euro value would be below the U$. The fact that central banks manipulate rates, currencies and exchanges means that the Euro is implausibly over-valued which negatively impacts economic development. Its value will need to plummet in order to represent the Euro zone's political-economic reality. This will spark inflation and social unrest.
-Real budget spend is fully double of what it was in 2000. This means that there is no 'austerity' but an ever increasing share of the real economy taken over by government. If you add regulatory costs including green fascist technology and sundry demands; fully 50% of the Euro-economy is controlled by government. By comparison the National Socialist state of Germany during the 1930s controlled about 65 %.
-Real Islam. Moslem immigration and its anti-culture will be ascendant in most Euro urban zones by 2040. Half of all Moslems are either in jail, or on welfare. The socialist state cannot afford Moslem immigration. Neither can civilization or culture.
-Real bubbles exist in housing and the stock market. They won't last. Zero interest rates and printing of money always has consequences. Housing is now untethered to incomes and stock prices are free from fundamentals. Both bubbles will implode in some fashion at some point in the future.
Europe faces 3 inter-related problems: debt, bubbles and social disintegration. All are related in some way. Times of trouble usually hit when you least expect it. No one counted on the 2008 implosion. All was rose petals and buttercups in 2007. The fact is that little of what caused the last implosion has been resolved and in fact they have in fact been greatly acerbated and widened. What makes anyone believe that a future crisis is impossible ? When it does happen and it will, are you ready ?