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Letters by a modern St. Ferdinand III about cults

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Plenty of cults exist - every cult has its 'religious dogma', its idols, its 'prophets', its 'science', its 'proof' and its intolerant liturgy of demands.  Cults everywhere:  Corona, 'The Science' or Scientism, Islam, the State, the cult of Gender Fascism, Marxism, Darwin and Evolution, Globaloneywarming, Changing Climate, Abortion...

Tempus Fugit Memento Mori - Time Flies Remember Death 

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Thursday, December 20, 2007

Bad intelligence on Iran

Bush-derangement syndrome should not be a part of CIA reporting.

by StFerdIII

The CIA needs reform and fast. Usually at odds with White House policy, the CIA engages in varieties of political, byzantine subterfuge. Its recent exposition that Iran poses no threat and ceased its nuclear program in 2003, is about as sensible and realistic a statement, as saying that Islam poses no threat; that the tooth fairy exists or that L. Ron Gore's globaloney-warming cult is a science. It is high time that the CIA is either massively reformed, or simply abolished and another 'intelligence service agency' found.

Many experts and those who know the CIA would agree that it is a dysfunctional group. John Bolton the former ambassador to the Useless Nations has commented that the recent National Intelligence Estimate [NIE] which comprised opinions from 16 disparate agencies was a; '....highly-politicized document, written by some who are not even intelligence community professionals, but rather from the State Department... In theory, they all work for the President, but they don't like his policies and they think that he's too belligerent towards Iran - though my own personal view is that the President was not tough enough - and this paper was intended to undercut the Bush position.'

Indeed Bush has not been tough enough on Iran. The current sanctions do little to impact financial, technological and armaments flows into Iran, and the regime still enjoys enough support not to fear an internal coup or insurrection. International dialogue with Iran, much as with Iraq pre-2003, is a failure.

The NIE report was a bombshell. It gave Iran a victory. Anti-Americanism everywhere was buoyed with more material to vilify Bushitler with, and it elevates the power of the UN and the Europeans to continue their rather useless diplomatic dance with the Iranians, who are only too happy to play along.

None of these results are positive or relevant.

The public at large seems to believe that the CIA, the FBI and any organ of the US government moves in lockstep with White House and Presidential decree. This is of course a myth.

Bureaucracies have their own fief-rules; objectives; rules; cultures and strategems to accrete more power. Historically the CIA has never been a supporter of aggressive military and foreign policy activity. Kenneth Timmerman's books are great sources at the vicious bureaucratic struggles which exist intra- and inter- agency. The CIA and especially those who wrote the recent NIE reports are not friends of the Buch doctrine. That much is obvious.

But some other valid points can be made from this rather poorly written and badly constructed opinion piece. First the NIE report is authored by 3 men, none of whom are supportive of Bush's actions in Iraq and who believe that diplomacy is the best method to contain Iran. Second, this report was done in isolation without White House or other expert opinion and certainly without gaining insights from allies such as Israel or the British secret service – both of whom have radically different beliefs about Iran's nuclear and war-making potential than the CIA. Third, the CIA is more interested in not being involved in a casus belli if and when war with Iran occurs. It is most likely, that conflict is inevitable with a totalitarian-fascist Islamic theocracy. War will occur unless the current regime is toppled.

The report also makes no sense. The IAEA – the UN international Atomic and Energy Association – in October released a report stating the Iran was still pursuing nuclear technology, processes and skills to make a nuclear reactor capable of military usage. El Baradei, the chief of the IAEA and hardly a Bush supporter, stated in October that:

'I think we have two issues. First, there is the so-called P1, the extent of research and development they have with regard to their enrichment. We need to know the nature and the scope of their enrichment programme, that is clearly the most sensitive part of the Iranian programme. We would like [to have]... the full status of their enrichment programme and that is key to our understanding the scope and nature, of the programme. The other issue is the so-called research about weaponisation studies.'

According to the IAEA there is no proof that Iran has stopped its nuclear program, nor its desire to possess a nuclear weapon.

Iran is a fascist-imperialist state with designs to lead the Islamic world. Its leadership has constantly desired the eradication of Israel and the creation of a new Caliphate – centered in Teheran. It is now confronted by US and 'crusader' troops along 2 borders in Iraq and Afghanistan. The US seventh fleet sits menacingly off its southern shores. Does anyone really believe that such a fascist state, feeling besieged would willingly and grinningly give up its nuclear program?

Of course not.

So what are the implications of this dumb report.
1. Israel is now isolated and rightfully fears for its very existence. The Israelis will now be in the forefront of dismantling the Iranian nuclear threat.
2. Pre-emption by Bush or the next president is practically impossible, unless another and very convincing casus belli is found. The obvious one, that Iranians have been in Iraq killing US soldiers, and sponsoring terror throughout the world, is apparently not good enough.
3. The US and Europe might believe that the Iranian economy, which is undergoing contraction, rationing, and instability, might galvanzie a coup and a regime change. In other words it will be foreign policy on the cheap.

The Iranian regime is a threat and there is little doubt that it is still trying to enrich uranium for civilian and military use. Iran has spent hundreds of billions sponsoring Hamas, Hizbollah and various terrorist groups around the world. It has openly avowed the destruction of Israel and the US. Yet even this is not good enough to remove this regime. So once again we will drift along hoping that international dialogue or an internal regime change will solve our problem.

Hoping for miracles to end fascist regimes, is as history tells us, just another delusional and ultimately sordid, utopian dream. At some point it is going to cost us a lot of money, lives and political capital to deal with Iran and drag the Iranian Muslim state into the modern world.

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